可行性研究智能体

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功能说明

• 找出那两三个决定结果的数字

  每个项目都踩在少数几个假定和八十页布景上。它在其他一切之前先点名哪个是哪个。

• 给每一个算盈亏平衡点，而不是给一个总结论

  每个假定能移动多远，答案才会翻转。一个从猜测里算到小数点后两位的回报率是表演。

• 三种情形，被诚实地分开

  保守、预期和乐观——并写明它们之间到底变的是什么，而不只是给出总数。

• 标明哪些是提供的、假定的，还是未知的

  大多数研究把这三样混成一个自信的列。知道哪个是哪个，正是一份研究和一本宣传册之间的差别。

• 说明该先去实测什么

  在投入之前值得花成本去弄清的那一两个事实，按它们对结果的影响大小排序。

• 它可以得出「不成立」的结论

  并写明在什么条件下它会成立。一份不可能失败的研究，不是研究。

这会改变什么

运行方式

该智能体通过 PROMIVO 运行时在服务器端运行。每次运行都会逐步记录，每次工具调用在执行前都会进行权限检查。

1. 1输入按智能体的输入结构进行校验
2. 2模型claude-opus-5，并自动回退
3. 3工具extract_structured_data
4. 4权限自动执行 READ 级操作；更高的等待你批准
5. 5输出符合输出结构的结构化结果
6. 6日志记录 token、耗时和每一个步骤

演示

演示数据Illustrative sample output, abridged.

{
  "project": "A 40-cover restaurant in a mid-size city centre",
  "currency": "USD",
  "capitalAvailable": 180000
}

{
  "cases": [
    {
      "name": "conservative",
      "worksOrNot": "Does not work with the capital available. It runs out in month eleven, which is before it fails on trading — the shortfall is cash timing, not the business.",
      "whatChanges": "29 midweek covers, food cost at 34%, three months to reach steady trade instead of two.",
      "peakCashNeed": 214000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 19
    },
    {
      "name": "expected",
      "worksOrNot": "Works, with 13% of the capital available as headroom. That is thin for a first year.",
      "whatChanges": "34 midweek covers, food cost at 31%.",
      "peakCashNeed": 156000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 11
    }
  ],
  "risks": [
    {
      "risk": "Midweek trade does not develop",
      "effect": "The single largest exposure. Below 29 covers the project does not reach break-even at any point in the horizon.",
      "earlyWarning": "Midweek covers in weeks 6 to 10, once opening curiosity has passed."
    }
  ],
  "market": "…",
  "escalate": true,
  "technical": "…",
  "conclusion": "Feasible in the expected case and not in the conservative one, and the gap between them is a single number nobody has measured: midweek covers. This is not a decision to make on the model — it is a decision to make after four evenings of counting.",
  "disclaimer": "Assumptions and break-evens from the figures supplied. This is not investment, legal or financial advice, contains no valuation, and is not a recommendation to proceed. Figures marked assumed were not researched or supplied.",
  "operations": "…",
  "measureFirst": [
    {
      "question": "What do comparable midweek covers actually run at in this location?",
      "howToFindOut": "Count arrivals at two comparable venues within 400m on four midweek evenings. Two evenings of somebody's time, against a decision worth $180,000.",
      "whyItMatters": "It is the assumption with the least headroom and the one the whole model rests on."
    }
  ],
  "organisation": "…",
  "stillUnknown": [
    "Local midweek demand",
    "Extraction consent status for the site"
  ],
  "assumedFigures": [
    "Covers per night — assumed from venue size and typical turn, not from any measurement of this location.",
    "Food cost percentage — assumed at a common range for this format."
  ],
  "capitalRequired": 156000,
  "suppliedFigures": [
    "Rent",
    "Capital available",
    "Site size"
  ],
  "whatThisRestsOn": [
    {
      "source": "assumed",
      "headroom": "15% — the thinnest margin in the model.",
      "assumption": "Covers on a Tuesday and Wednesday",
      "assumedValue": "34 per night",
      "whyItDecides": "Weekends fill in almost any plausible case and are not what decides this. Midweek carries the fixed costs, and the difference between 29 and 34 covers is the difference between the project working and not.",
      "breakEvenValue": "29 per night"
    },
    {
      "source": "supplied",
      "headroom": "Comfortable at the rent supplied — but the lease term matters more than the rate.",
      "assumption": "Rent as a share of revenue",
      "assumedValue": "9%",
      "whyItDecides": "It is the only cost here that cannot be reduced once signed.",
      "breakEvenValue": "13%"
    }
  ],
  "escalationReason": "The conservative case fails on cash before it fails on trading, and the deciding assumption has never been measured.",
  "legalAndRegulatory": [
    "Food business registration, a premises licence if alcohol is served, and an extraction consent that is frequently the item that delays opening. Whether each applies to your site is a question for your local authority, not for this study."
  ],
  "rampAndSeasonality": "The model reaches steady trade in month three. Peak cash need is month eight, not month one — a project that works at steady state and runs out in month eight is not feasible, and an annual average hides exactly that.",
  "conditionsUnderWhichItWorks": [
    "Midweek covers hold above 29.",
    "Food cost stays under 33%.",
    "At least $30,000 of the capital is held back for the month-eight cash trough rather than spent on fit-out."
  ]
}

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