Agente de Estudios de Viabilidad

Resumen

Beneficios

Qué hace

• Encuentra los dos o tres números que lo deciden

  Todo proyecto se apoya en un puñado de supuestos y ochenta páginas de decorado. Nombra cuál es cuál antes que nada.

• Punto de equilibrio de cada uno, no un veredicto único

  Cuánto puede moverse cada supuesto antes de que la respuesta cambie. Una rentabilidad con dos decimales sacada de suposiciones es teatro.

• Tres escenarios, separados con honestidad

  Conservador, esperado y optimista, con lo que cambia entre ellos declarado y no solo los totales.

• Marca lo aportado, lo supuesto y lo desconocido

  La mayoría de los estudios mezclan los tres en una columna segura de sí misma. Saber cuál es cuál es la diferencia entre un estudio y un folleto.

• Dice qué ir a medir primero

  Los uno o dos datos que merecen el coste de averiguarlos antes de comprometerse, ordenados por cuánto mueven el desenlace.

• Puede concluir que no funciona

  Y declarar en qué condiciones sí lo haría. Un estudio que no puede fallar no es un estudio.

Qué cambia

Cómo funciona

Este agente se ejecuta en el servidor a través del entorno de ejecución de PROMIVO. Cada ejecución se registra paso a paso y cada llamada a una herramienta se comprueba contra los permisos antes de ejecutarse.

1. 1EntradaValidada contra el esquema de entrada del agente
2. 2Modeloclaude-opus-5 con reserva automática
3. 3Herramientasextract_structured_data
4. 4PermisosEjecuta acciones READ automáticamente; cualquier cosa por encima espera aprobación
5. 5SalidaResultado estructurado conforme al esquema de salida
6. 6RegistroTokens, duración y cada paso quedan registrados

Demostración

Datos de demostraciónIllustrative sample output, abridged.

{
  "project": "A 40-cover restaurant in a mid-size city centre",
  "currency": "USD",
  "capitalAvailable": 180000
}

{
  "cases": [
    {
      "name": "conservative",
      "worksOrNot": "Does not work with the capital available. It runs out in month eleven, which is before it fails on trading — the shortfall is cash timing, not the business.",
      "whatChanges": "29 midweek covers, food cost at 34%, three months to reach steady trade instead of two.",
      "peakCashNeed": 214000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 19
    },
    {
      "name": "expected",
      "worksOrNot": "Works, with 13% of the capital available as headroom. That is thin for a first year.",
      "whatChanges": "34 midweek covers, food cost at 31%.",
      "peakCashNeed": 156000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 11
    }
  ],
  "risks": [
    {
      "risk": "Midweek trade does not develop",
      "effect": "The single largest exposure. Below 29 covers the project does not reach break-even at any point in the horizon.",
      "earlyWarning": "Midweek covers in weeks 6 to 10, once opening curiosity has passed."
    }
  ],
  "market": "…",
  "escalate": true,
  "technical": "…",
  "conclusion": "Feasible in the expected case and not in the conservative one, and the gap between them is a single number nobody has measured: midweek covers. This is not a decision to make on the model — it is a decision to make after four evenings of counting.",
  "disclaimer": "Assumptions and break-evens from the figures supplied. This is not investment, legal or financial advice, contains no valuation, and is not a recommendation to proceed. Figures marked assumed were not researched or supplied.",
  "operations": "…",
  "measureFirst": [
    {
      "question": "What do comparable midweek covers actually run at in this location?",
      "howToFindOut": "Count arrivals at two comparable venues within 400m on four midweek evenings. Two evenings of somebody's time, against a decision worth $180,000.",
      "whyItMatters": "It is the assumption with the least headroom and the one the whole model rests on."
    }
  ],
  "organisation": "…",
  "stillUnknown": [
    "Local midweek demand",
    "Extraction consent status for the site"
  ],
  "assumedFigures": [
    "Covers per night — assumed from venue size and typical turn, not from any measurement of this location.",
    "Food cost percentage — assumed at a common range for this format."
  ],
  "capitalRequired": 156000,
  "suppliedFigures": [
    "Rent",
    "Capital available",
    "Site size"
  ],
  "whatThisRestsOn": [
    {
      "source": "assumed",
      "headroom": "15% — the thinnest margin in the model.",
      "assumption": "Covers on a Tuesday and Wednesday",
      "assumedValue": "34 per night",
      "whyItDecides": "Weekends fill in almost any plausible case and are not what decides this. Midweek carries the fixed costs, and the difference between 29 and 34 covers is the difference between the project working and not.",
      "breakEvenValue": "29 per night"
    },
    {
      "source": "supplied",
      "headroom": "Comfortable at the rent supplied — but the lease term matters more than the rate.",
      "assumption": "Rent as a share of revenue",
      "assumedValue": "9%",
      "whyItDecides": "It is the only cost here that cannot be reduced once signed.",
      "breakEvenValue": "13%"
    }
  ],
  "escalationReason": "The conservative case fails on cash before it fails on trading, and the deciding assumption has never been measured.",
  "legalAndRegulatory": [
    "Food business registration, a premises licence if alcohol is served, and an extraction consent that is frequently the item that delays opening. Whether each applies to your site is a question for your local authority, not for this study."
  ],
  "rampAndSeasonality": "The model reaches steady trade in month three. Peak cash need is month eight, not month one — a project that works at steady state and runs out in month eight is not feasible, and an annual average hides exactly that.",
  "conditionsUnderWhichItWorks": [
    "Midweek covers hold above 29.",
    "Food cost stays under 33%.",
    "At least $30,000 of the capital is held back for the month-eight cash trough rather than spent on fit-out."
  ]
}

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Casos de uso

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Reseñas

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