وكيل دراسات الجدوى

نظرة عامة

الفوائد

ماذا يفعل

• يجد الرقمين أو الثلاثة التي تقرّر

  كل مشروع يستند إلى حفنة افتراضات وثمانين صفحة ديكور. يسمّي أيّها أيّ قبل أي شيء آخر.

• نقطة تعادل لكل واحد، لا حكم واحد

  كم يستطيع كل افتراض أن يتحرّك قبل أن تنقلب النتيجة. عائد بخانتين عشريتين من تخمينات مسرحية.

• ثلاثة سيناريوهات مفصولة بصدق

  متحفّظ ومتوقّع ومتفائل — مع بيان ما الذي يتغيّر بينها، لا المجاميع فقط.

• يعلّم ما زُوّد وما افتُرض وما يُجهَل

  أغلب الدراسات تخلط الثلاثة في عمود واحد واثق. ومعرفة أيّها أيّ هي الفرق بين دراسة وكتيّب دعائي.

• يقول ما الذي تقيسه أولاً

  الحقيقة أو الحقيقتان اللتان تستحقّان تكلفة معرفتهما قبل الالتزام، مرتّبتين بأثرهما على النتيجة.

• يستطيع أن يخلص إلى أنه لا ينجح

  ويذكر الشروط التي ينجح تحتها. الدراسة التي لا يمكن أن تفشل ليست دراسة.

ما الذي يتغيّر

كيف يعمل

يعمل هذا الوكيل على الخادم عبر بيئة تشغيل PROMIVO. يُسجَّل كل تشغيل خطوة بخطوة، ويُفحص إذن كل استدعاء أداة قبل تنفيذه.

1. 1المدخليُتحقَّق منه وفق مخطّط مدخلات الوكيل
2. 2النموذجclaude-opus-5 مع تحويل احتياطي تلقائي
3. 3الأدواتextract_structured_data
4. 4الصلاحياتينفّذ إجراءات READ تلقائيًا؛ وما فوقها ينتظر الموافقة
5. 5المخرجنتيجة منظّمة مطابقة لمخطّط المخرجات
6. 6التسجيلالرموز والمدة وكل خطوة مسجّلة

عرض توضيحي

بيانات تجريبيةIllustrative sample output, abridged.

{
  "project": "A 40-cover restaurant in a mid-size city centre",
  "currency": "USD",
  "capitalAvailable": 180000
}

{
  "cases": [
    {
      "name": "conservative",
      "worksOrNot": "Does not work with the capital available. It runs out in month eleven, which is before it fails on trading — the shortfall is cash timing, not the business.",
      "whatChanges": "29 midweek covers, food cost at 34%, three months to reach steady trade instead of two.",
      "peakCashNeed": 214000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 19
    },
    {
      "name": "expected",
      "worksOrNot": "Works, with 13% of the capital available as headroom. That is thin for a first year.",
      "whatChanges": "34 midweek covers, food cost at 31%.",
      "peakCashNeed": 156000,
      "monthsToBreakEven": 11
    }
  ],
  "risks": [
    {
      "risk": "Midweek trade does not develop",
      "effect": "The single largest exposure. Below 29 covers the project does not reach break-even at any point in the horizon.",
      "earlyWarning": "Midweek covers in weeks 6 to 10, once opening curiosity has passed."
    }
  ],
  "market": "…",
  "escalate": true,
  "technical": "…",
  "conclusion": "Feasible in the expected case and not in the conservative one, and the gap between them is a single number nobody has measured: midweek covers. This is not a decision to make on the model — it is a decision to make after four evenings of counting.",
  "disclaimer": "Assumptions and break-evens from the figures supplied. This is not investment, legal or financial advice, contains no valuation, and is not a recommendation to proceed. Figures marked assumed were not researched or supplied.",
  "operations": "…",
  "measureFirst": [
    {
      "question": "What do comparable midweek covers actually run at in this location?",
      "howToFindOut": "Count arrivals at two comparable venues within 400m on four midweek evenings. Two evenings of somebody's time, against a decision worth $180,000.",
      "whyItMatters": "It is the assumption with the least headroom and the one the whole model rests on."
    }
  ],
  "organisation": "…",
  "stillUnknown": [
    "Local midweek demand",
    "Extraction consent status for the site"
  ],
  "assumedFigures": [
    "Covers per night — assumed from venue size and typical turn, not from any measurement of this location.",
    "Food cost percentage — assumed at a common range for this format."
  ],
  "capitalRequired": 156000,
  "suppliedFigures": [
    "Rent",
    "Capital available",
    "Site size"
  ],
  "whatThisRestsOn": [
    {
      "source": "assumed",
      "headroom": "15% — the thinnest margin in the model.",
      "assumption": "Covers on a Tuesday and Wednesday",
      "assumedValue": "34 per night",
      "whyItDecides": "Weekends fill in almost any plausible case and are not what decides this. Midweek carries the fixed costs, and the difference between 29 and 34 covers is the difference between the project working and not.",
      "breakEvenValue": "29 per night"
    },
    {
      "source": "supplied",
      "headroom": "Comfortable at the rent supplied — but the lease term matters more than the rate.",
      "assumption": "Rent as a share of revenue",
      "assumedValue": "9%",
      "whyItDecides": "It is the only cost here that cannot be reduced once signed.",
      "breakEvenValue": "13%"
    }
  ],
  "escalationReason": "The conservative case fails on cash before it fails on trading, and the deciding assumption has never been measured.",
  "legalAndRegulatory": [
    "Food business registration, a premises licence if alcohol is served, and an extraction consent that is frequently the item that delays opening. Whether each applies to your site is a question for your local authority, not for this study."
  ],
  "rampAndSeasonality": "The model reaches steady trade in month three. Peak cash need is month eight, not month one — a project that works at steady state and runs out in month eight is not feasible, and an annual average hides exactly that.",
  "conditionsUnderWhichItWorks": [
    "Midweek covers hold above 29.",
    "Food cost stays under 33%.",
    "At least $30,000 of the capital is held back for the month-eight cash trough rather than spent on fit-out."
  ]
}

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